This isn’t the first time I’ve written an article like this one.

During the 2023 season, I wrote several similar articles. At that time, I didn’t believe the Kansas City Chiefs could make a run for the Super Bowl. But they did — and won their second straight NFL championship.

So I was wrong then — and I could be wrong now. If Kansas City turns its season around, you have my permission to laugh at me.

After a heroic 23-20 comeback victory over the Indianapolis Colts that seemed to breathe life into this season, the Chiefs recorded a 31-28 road loss to the Dallas Cowboys. They are now 6-6 and have less than a 50/50 chance to make the playoffs. The Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Chargers all won their Week 13 games, making Kansas City’s path even harder.

Any plausible scenario for the team to make the playoffs begins with winning all five of its remaining games. The Chiefs should beat the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders, leaving games against the Chargers, Denver Broncos and Houston. All of those are at home — which is helpful. But I don’t believe Kansas City will win all of them. In fact, I think it will register yet another loss to the Texans on Sunday. If that happens, the team’s only realistic postseason hope is catching the Chargers, who could dash that dream by beating the Chiefs in Week 15.

I’m not the first to suggest that Kansas City is a better team than its 6-6 record would indicate. The metrics tend to view the Chiefs positively — especially on offense. Since the team is also 1-6 in one-score games this season (it was 11-0 in those games last season), it’s fair to say it’s had bad luck.

These are just some of the instances where games could have turned. But blaming the team’s record on bad luck ignores very real problems.

As I have suggested before, the Chiefs are having an identity crisis. They don’t have many weaknesses — which is why the metrics tend to favor them — but they don’t have many strengths, either. And that is a problem — because in big games, good teams lean into what they do best.

These teams can win in multiple ways — and their identities can change season-to-season, too. In 2019 and 2022, Kansas City won with its offense. In 2023, the Chiefs leaned on their elite defense.

But now, Kansas City’s offense and defense both have weaknesses that prevent the team from being elite.

Is it the coaching staff? Is it the roster? Is it some of both — or some other factors?

It’s a little bit of everything — but I’ll start with the roster.

On offense, the Chiefs can’t lean into a comprehensive passing game — and can’t run the ball efficiently on early downs. On defense, they can’t rush with four. This means they have to blitz more — but they don’t have the defensive backs they need to do that effectively.

These limitations prevent the team from creating its own identity. Of course, having quarterback Patrick Mahomes mitigates a lot of these problems — but at some point, Kansas City must be able to do something special as a team.

I would have to say no. They’ve had the offseason, a dozen games and a bye week. If they haven’t figured it out by now, it’s not going to happen until the offseason.

And given its resources, it will be hard for Kansas City to fix both sides of the ball in one offseason. But there’s one consolation: if the Chiefs do miss the playoffs, they will be in a better draft position. In recent years, Kansas City has missed many true blue-chip prospects. In 2026, it could be in a better position to take one. At the very least, it could solve at least one of its problems.

For the Chiefs, this identity crisis is the biggest existential problem they have faced since acquiring Mahomes in 2017. If Kansas City wants to once again field teams like it had two or three years ago, it must again find something in which it can excel. How the Chiefs handle this problem will, in large part, determine how the rest of head coach Andy Reid’s career will go.